tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Dulles, leaving 06:06, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2055 United PIT 15:45 LAX 17:57 14% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic 2h 55m Boston BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004 11h 03m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:59 → ATL 09:47DL 1383 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 13m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 2h 12m Dulles IAD 09:30 → LAX 12:05UA 657 8h 59m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → PIT 05:55 → JFK 08:20AA 4587 · flown by Republic 2h 40m New York JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:58AA 3 11h 03m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PIT 13:57 → ATL 15:45DL 1345 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 18:50 → LAX 20:21DL 996 9h 24m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa 1h 28m Dulles IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689 8h 12m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:22 → ATL 13:05DL 1363 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 7h 55m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 1h 35m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 8h 15m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 06:15 → MIA 09:08AA 2313 47m Miami MIA 09:55 → LAX 12:24AA 3288 9h 09m 73% 56%
UnitedDetails → PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180 52m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 10m 70% 53%
AmericanDetails → PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont 50m Philadelphia PHL 21:59 → LAX 00:45 +1AA 3235 8h 00m 68% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON