Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 5815 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day YX 5815 PIT 08:10 → LGA 09:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5715 PIT 16:09 → LGA 17:47 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5815 Republic	PIT 08:10	LGA 09:45	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
YX 9934 Republic	PIT 10:00	LGA 11:33	7%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 12:03	LGA 13:38	8%	5%	1.6%	80%
AA 4396 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:59	LGA 20:34	12%	6%	1.3%	79%
YX 4433 Republic	PIT 16:02	LGA 17:38	17%	7%	1.5%	no record
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 16:09	LGA 17:47	17%	7%	1.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON