Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3513 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3513 PIT 05:35 → MCO 07:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3517 PIT 16:18 → MCO 18:46 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3513 Southwest	PIT 05:35	MCO 07:46	5%	1%	4.7%	no record
WN 1509 Southwest	PIT 07:17	MCO 09:33	6%	2%	5.2%	no record
WN 4144 Southwest	PIT 09:28	MCO 11:56	8%	3%	5.3%	no record
WN 1729 Southwest	PIT 11:03	MCO 13:31	12%	3%	5.2%	no record
WN 591 Southwest	PIT 19:08	MCO 21:36	13%	7%	1.2%	no record
WN 3516 Southwest	PIT 13:03	MCO 15:31	14%	5%	1.6%	no record
WN 3517 Southwest	PIT 16:18	MCO 18:46	19%	7%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON