tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 2313 at 06:15, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2313 American Flight history → PIT 06:15 MIA 09:08 13% 3% 1.1% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 27m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 29m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:43 → ATL 07:26DL 1504 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510 5h 20m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 3h 42m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 9h 32m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → PIT 05:59 → CLT 07:34AA 376 1h 37m Charlotte CLT 09:11 → MIA 11:19AA 3184 5h 20m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:59 → ATL 09:47DL 1383 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 5h 08m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor 1h 38m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 5h 58m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → PIT 08:00 → RDU 09:26AA 4531 · flown by Republic 2h 02m Raleigh/Durham RDU 11:28 → MIA 13:40AA 2321 5h 40m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → PIT 10:50 → BOS 12:39DL 5678 · flown by Republic 2h 36m Boston BOS 15:15 → MIA 18:58DL 776 8h 08m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 18:42 → MIA 23:26DL 2187 7h 06m 66% 56%
AmericanDetails → PIT 15:15 → DFW 17:14AA 2664 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:10 → MIA 22:05AA 2206 6h 50m 73% 41%
AmericanDetails → PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont 46m Philadelphia PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936 5h 07m 62% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON