Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 3678 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day YX 3678 PIT 05:07 → ORD 05:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 602 PIT 17:56 → ORD 18:36 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3678 Republic	PIT 05:07	ORD 05:48	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3461 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:36	ORD 09:30	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 4539 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:00	ORD 08:48	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 1803 United Flight history →	PIT 06:46	ORD 07:19	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 4525 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:16	ORD 10:58	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 455 United Flight history →	PIT 10:54	ORD 11:42	12%	5%	0.8%	90%
AA 640 American	PIT 06:27	ORD 07:10	12%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 11:41	ORD 12:23	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
YX 3567 Republic	PIT 16:06	ORD 16:55	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2180 United Flight history →	PIT 14:10	ORD 14:55	23%	8%	0.8%	75%
UA 6023 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PIT 20:01	ORD 20:39	24%	9%	1.0%	75%
AA 2671 American	PIT 20:45	ORD 21:38	24%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 2675 American	PIT 16:04	ORD 16:49	32%	9%	1.2%	no record
UA 602 United Flight history →	PIT 17:56	ORD 18:36	33%	9%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON