Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 9832 PIT 02:18 → PHL 03:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5259 PIT 17:23 → PHL 18:43 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 9832 American	PIT 02:18	PHL 03:50	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 553 American	PIT 06:06	PHL 07:31	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 10:53	PHL 12:22	11%	5%	0.9%	67%
AA 3248 American Flight history →	PIT 09:59	PHL 11:27	13%	4%	0.7%	40%
OH 5132 PSA	PIT 14:42	PHL 16:15	15%	7%	0.9%	no record
OH 5259 PSA	PIT 17:23	PHL 18:43	16%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 5871 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 10:45	PHL 12:08	0%	0%	10.0%	100%
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 19:45	PHL 21:09	25%	7%	14.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON