Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:40, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1525 Southwest	PIT 14:23	PHX 16:03	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1885 American Flight history →	PIT 07:41	PHX 09:25	14%	4%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic	1h 16m Dulles	IAD 08:34 → PHX 10:31UA 709	7h 25m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:40 → MSP 12:55DL 845	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHX 15:38DL 2284	6h 58m	95%	84%
American Details →	PIT 05:59 → CLT 07:34AA 376	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986	8h 05m	100%	83%
United Details →	PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859	1h 22m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	7h 19m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:43 → ATL 07:26DL 1504	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796	9h 33m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PIT 17:50 → SLC 20:00DL 1188	1h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → PHX 22:11DL 1496	7h 21m	98%	82%
American Details →	PIT 13:02 → DCA 14:27AA 4757 · flown by Republic	3h 34m Washington	DCA 18:01 → PHX 19:50AA 3191	9h 48m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:59 → ATL 09:47DL 1383	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	9h 19m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297	6h 46m	71%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON