tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4531 American flown by Republic Flight history → PIT 08:00 RDU 09:26 5% 2% 0.6% 93%
YX 4742 Republic PIT 16:30 RDU 18:05 11% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:43 → ATL 07:26DL 1504 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → RDU 11:38DL 2052 5h 55m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:59 → ATL 09:47DL 1383 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 6h 31m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:22 → ATL 13:05DL 1363 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → RDU 15:57DL 1550 4h 35m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → PIT 12:03 → LGA 13:38AA 4654 · flown by Republic 2h 56m New York LGA 16:34 → RDU 18:35AA 4485 · flown by Republic 6h 32m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:40 → MSP 12:55DL 845 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 14:36 → RDU 18:12DL 2699 6h 32m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → PIT 05:59 → CLT 07:34AA 376 2h 51m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → RDU 11:26AA 2688 5h 27m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa 1h 05m Dulles IAD 12:47 → RDU 14:11UA 439 3h 41m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:46 → ORD 07:19UA 1803 3h 29m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 7h 15m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont 49m Philadelphia PHL 21:58 → RDU 23:29AA 2692 3h 44m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON