Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 414 Alaska	PIT 08:06	SEA 10:19	22%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 11:40 → MSP 12:55DL 845	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 20m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:43 → ATL 07:26DL 1504	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 30m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:59 → ATL 09:47DL 1383	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 51m	98%	83%
United Details →	PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa	1h 25m Dulles	IAD 13:07 → SEA 15:54UA 1824	8h 24m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic	3h 29m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:49DL 332	11h 49m	100%	80%
JetBlue Details →	PIT 13:41 → BOS 15:33B6 386	3h 58m Boston	BOS 19:31 → SEA 23:16B6 397	12h 35m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:22 → ATL 13:05DL 1363	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481	8h 21m	97%	78%
United Details →	PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859	3h 49m Houston	IAH 12:07 → SEA 14:53UA 2228	11h 38m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON