tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:40, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2820 United Flight history → PIT 06:53 SFO 09:09 16% 5% 0.6% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 2h 29m Dulles IAD 09:47 → SFO 12:34UA 1773 9h 28m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:50 → SLC 20:00DL 1188 2h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 22:18 → SFO 23:20DL 1091 8h 30m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → PIT 05:55 → JFK 08:20AA 4587 · flown by Republic 2h 52m New York JFK 11:12 → SFO 14:21AA 149 11h 26m 100% 79%
JetBlueDetails → PIT 06:25 → JFK 07:57B6 1198 2h 33m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 43m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic 3h 05m Boston BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860 11h 34m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:43 → ATL 07:26DL 1504 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 50m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → PIT 16:42 → DEN 18:18UA 1816 2h 52m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 9h 14m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:40 → MSP 12:55DL 845 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SFO 16:25DL 756 7h 45m 94% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PIT 20:01 → ORD 20:39UA 6023 · flown by SkyWest 56m Chicago ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106 7h 31m 75% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON