tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 10:14, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1188 Delta Flight history → PIT 17:50 SLC 20:00 13% 4% 0.5% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 16:42 → DEN 18:18UA 1816 2h 47m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 8h 02m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:40 → MSP 12:55DL 845 1h 35m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → SLC 16:21DL 2658 6h 41m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic 3h 15m Boston BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:23DL 464 10h 23m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:43 → ATL 07:26DL 1504 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 27m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → PIT 05:59 → CLT 07:34AA 376 2h 48m Charlotte CLT 10:22 → SLC 12:51AA 1895 8h 52m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → PIT 08:30 → DEN 09:59UA 1765 3h 51m Denver DEN 13:50 → SLC 15:23UA 1840 8h 53m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PIT 10:50 → BOS 12:39DL 5678 · flown by Republic 3h 51m Boston BOS 16:30 → SLC 19:57DL 445 11h 07m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:59 → ATL 09:47DL 1383 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 7h 51m 97% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON