Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2920 at 12:18, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2920 Southwest	PIT 12:18	STL 13:10	7%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 11:40 → MSP 12:55DL 845	2h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 15:14 → STL 16:50DL 1224	6h 10m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:43 → ATL 07:26DL 1504	59m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → STL 09:06DL 1400	4h 23m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:59 → ATL 09:47DL 1383	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566	5h 31m	96%	84%
American Details →	PIT 05:59 → CLT 07:34AA 376	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 08:38 → STL 09:36AA 2497	4h 37m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:22 → ATL 13:05DL 1363	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543	6h 17m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609	6h 43m	91%	81%
United Details →	PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic	1h 42m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → STL 10:27UA 4425 · flown by GoJet	5h 21m	99%	80%
American Details →	PIT 07:59 → CLT 09:34AA 384	2h 39m Charlotte	CLT 12:13 → STL 13:10AA 3096	6h 11m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PIT 15:15 → DFW 17:14AA 2664	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:02 → STL 19:53AA 2761	5h 38m	66%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON