Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3067 PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1013 PNS 17:29 → ATL 19:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3067 Delta Flight history →	PNS 08:01	ATL 10:15	8%	4%	1.7%	91%
DL 3129 Delta Flight history →	PNS 07:00	ATL 09:17	8%	4%	1.4%	92%
DL 3019 Delta Flight history →	PNS 06:00	ATL 08:15	9%	4%	2.4%	93%
DL 3103 Delta Flight history →	PNS 09:22	ATL 11:35	9%	5%	1.8%	92%
DL 3198 Delta Flight history →	PNS 11:31	ATL 13:48	9%	5%	4.3%	91%
DL 1640 Delta Flight history →	PNS 13:54	ATL 16:13	10%	4%	1.1%	88%
DL 1013 Delta Flight history →	PNS 17:29	ATL 19:50	16%	7%	2.2%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON