Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2924 at 09:40, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2924 Southwest	PNS 09:40	AUS 11:49	6%	2%	3.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104	6h 51m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	7h 49m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 25m	96%	79%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	3h 35m Houston	IAH 12:17 → AUS 13:24UA 1859	6h 24m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:31 → ATL 13:48DL 3198	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491	7h 19m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → AUS 21:18DL 1170	7h 24m	99%	73%
American Details →	PNS 06:45 → CLT 09:47AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 12:18 → AUS 14:08AA 1052	7h 23m	94%	70%
Delta Details →	PNS 17:29 → ATL 19:50DL 1013	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:47 → AUS 23:14DL 1081	5h 45m	93%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON