Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5548 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 5548 PNS 06:45 → CLT 09:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2476 PNS 12:47 → CLT 15:34 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5548 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 06:45	CLT 09:47	14%	7%	2.7%	92%
AA 3215 American	PNS 08:16	CLT 11:03	20%	8%	2.4%	no record
AA 2476 American	PNS 12:47	CLT 15:34	30%	9%	4.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON