Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5499 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day OH 5499 PNS 07:00 → DFW 09:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2863 PNS 13:46 → DFW 15:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5499 PSA	PNS 07:00	DFW 09:14	12%	10%	4.2%	no record
AA 3982 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 11:39	DFW 13:35	14%	5%	4.8%	79%
MQ 4114 Envoy	PNS 18:11	DFW 20:20	16%	7%	1.8%	no record
AA 2863 American	PNS 13:46	DFW 15:53	26%	9%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON