Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3979 at 12:10, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3979 Southwest	PNS 12:10	HOU 14:02	11%	4%	4.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 00m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	PNS 17:29 → ATL 19:50DL 1013	55m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	4h 22m	83%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON