Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 5156 at 12:21, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	PNS 12:21	LGA 16:05	13%	8%	6.5%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 50m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 42m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	6h 49m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468	6h 34m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:54DL 433	7h 32m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:31 → ATL 13:48DL 3198	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997	6h 56m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	PNS 17:29 → ATL 19:50DL 1013	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	4h 55m	87%	70%
American Details →	PNS 06:45 → CLT 09:47AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 05m Charlotte	CLT 11:52 → LGA 13:43AA 2268	5h 58m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON