tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 23m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 7h 15m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747 5h 12m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660 7h 07m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:45 → CLT 09:47AA 5548 · flown by PSA 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 12:33 → MCI 14:01AA 3233 7h 16m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 19:45 → MCI 20:56DL 1130 7h 02m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → PNS 17:29 → ATL 19:50DL 1013 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 6h 29m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → PNS 16:48 → IAH 18:43UA 4303 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 23m Houston IAH 20:06 → MCI 22:02UA 1589 5h 14m 92% 67%
AmericanDetails → PNS 11:39 → DFW 13:35AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:02 → MCI 16:46AA 3030 5h 07m 94% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON