Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MX 1559 at 08:49, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MX 1559 Breeze	PNS 08:49	MCO 11:28	18%	7%	8.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372	6h 34m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	3h 57m	93%	69%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:30AA 5424 · flown by PSA	1h 32m Washington	DCA 11:02 → MCO 13:37AA 1153	6h 37m	94%	68%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 12:56 → MCO 14:23DL 1576	5h 22m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	6h 18m	99%	66%
American Details →	PNS 06:45 → CLT 09:47AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → MCO 14:12AA 2117	6h 27m	94%	66%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:31 → ATL 13:48DL 3198	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → MCO 18:50DL 1497	6h 19m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	PNS 17:29 → ATL 19:50DL 1013	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MCO 00:15 +1DL 1162	5h 46m	96%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON