Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3386 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3386 PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest MQ 3568 PNS 13:33 → MIA 16:28 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3386 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 06:00	MIA 08:49	15%	5%	2.3%	87%
AA 3719 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 19:19	MIA 22:14	20%	6%	1.5%	87%
MQ 3568 Envoy	PNS 13:33	MIA 16:28	27%	6%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON