Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 658 at 16:16, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 658 United	PNS 16:16	ORD 18:46	21%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → ORD 12:27DL 2894	5h 27m	96%	76%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	3h 11m Houston	IAH 11:53 → ORD 14:37UA 1691	7h 37m	97%	75%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:30AA 5424 · flown by PSA	2h 03m Washington	DCA 11:33 → ORD 12:44AA 808	6h 44m	95%	73%
Frontier Details →	PNS 16:31 → DEN 18:48F9 2443	2h 10m Denver	DEN 20:58 → ORD 00:36 +1F9 3174	8h 05m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	PNS 17:29 → ATL 19:50DL 1013	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 24m	96%	70%
American Details →	PNS 06:45 → CLT 09:47AA 5548 · flown by PSA	1h 14m Charlotte	CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908	5h 34m	90%	69%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:13 → ORD 14:25DL 1477	6h 24m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	PNS 12:21 → LGA 16:05DL 5156 · flown by Endeavor	1h 50m New York	LGA 17:55 → ORD 19:59DL 2503	7h 38m	94%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON