Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5333 at 13:04, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5333 PSA	PNS 13:04	PHL 16:52	17%	7%	2.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131	6h 15m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → PHL 15:58DL 1692	6h 57m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279	5h 15m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 17:29 → ATL 19:50DL 1013	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 30m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 19:41 → PHL 21:42DL 1174	6h 48m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:31 → ATL 13:48DL 3198	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → PHL 19:51DL 1329	7h 20m	100%	75%
American Details →	PNS 06:45 → CLT 09:47AA 5548 · flown by PSA	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	7h 05m	94%	74%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49AA 3386 · flown by Envoy	2h 29m Miami	MIA 11:18 → PHL 14:18AA 1918	7h 18m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON