Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2930 at 06:39, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2930 Southwest	PNS 06:39	STL 08:31	4%	2%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700	6h 26m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566	5h 30m	98%	84%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	3h 14m Houston	IAH 11:56 → STL 14:17UA 2042	7h 17m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833	6h 43m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:31 → ATL 13:48DL 3198	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543	5h 08m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	PNS 17:29 → ATL 19:50DL 1013	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → STL 23:20DL 1403	5h 51m	96%	75%
American Details →	PNS 06:45 → CLT 09:47AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 26m Charlotte	CLT 12:13 → STL 13:10AA 3096	6h 25m	94%	74%
American Details →	PNS 11:39 → DFW 13:35AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:54 → STL 16:49AA 3944 · flown by Envoy	5h 10m	92%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON