Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 480 United Flight history →	PSC 05:03	DEN 08:31	7%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 4721 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 12:08	DEN 15:42	10%	4%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Pasco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:15 → DEN 11:47DL 1553	4h 32m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PSC 12:30 → SLC 15:14DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → DEN 20:01DL 1586	6h 31m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PSC 07:05 → MSP 12:01DL 2622	2h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 14:27 → DEN 15:30DL 1025	7h 25m	96%	82%
United Details →	PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	8h 09m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Seattle	SEA 08:10 → DEN 12:02DL 1358	5h 37m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → DEN 23:44DL 2851	7h 08m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest	48m San Francisco	SFO 16:32 → DEN 20:09UA 1835	5h 34m	50%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON