tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 3304 at 07:02, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3304 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSC 07:02 LAX 09:42 14% 7% 0.7% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSC 07:05 → MSP 12:01DL 2622 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 13:03 → LAX 14:59DL 2974 7h 54m 92% 83%
UnitedDetails → PSC 05:03 → DEN 08:31UA 480 1h 31m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 31m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 12m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 05:23 → PDX 06:18AS 3109 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Portland PDX 07:20 → LAX 09:57AS 581 4h 34m 91% 79%
DeltaDetails → PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest 3h 29m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 7h 30m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → PSC 05:08 → PHX 07:58AA 5007 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Phoenix PHX 10:48 → LAX 12:21AA 2027 7h 13m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest 59m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → LAX 22:10DL 1142 4h 49m 93% 76%
DeltaDetails → PSC 12:30 → SLC 15:14DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest 1h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 37m 97% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON