Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2622 at 07:05, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2622 Delta Flight history →	PSC 07:05	MSP 12:01	8%	3%	0.4%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Pasco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 25m	97%	87%
United Details →	PSC 05:03 → DEN 08:31UA 480	1h 09m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 37m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	PSC 12:30 → SLC 15:14DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → MSP 20:58DL 2935	6h 28m	97%	82%
Alaska Details →	PSC 06:15 → SEA 07:20AS 2165 · flown by Horizon	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	5h 42m	98%	81%
United Details →	PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Denver	DEN 17:55 → MSP 21:00UA 2076	6h 52m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON