Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 3109 at 05:23, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3109 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 05:23	PDX 06:18	9%	4%	0.8%	98%
AS 2471 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PSC 15:59	PDX 16:50	22%	6%	1.9%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	1h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373	5h 17m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	5h 55m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PSC 12:32 → SEA 13:50DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 16:06 → PDX 17:12DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	4h 40m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → PDX 10:35DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest	5h 10m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	PSC 07:02 → LAX 09:42AS 3304 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 11:22 → PDX 13:43AS 1355	6h 41m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 18:53 → PDX 19:55DL 3997 · flown by SkyWest	4h 19m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	PSC 18:04 → SEA 19:10AS 2366 · flown by Horizon	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	3h 18m	92%	75%
United Details →	PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:43UA 1227	7h 08m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 16:47 → PDX 18:38UA 1812	5h 03m	66%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON