Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5007 at 05:08 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5007 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 05:08	PHX 07:58	8%	5%	0.6%	94%
OO 6244 SkyWest	PSC 15:27	PHX 18:17	19%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PSC 05:23 → PDX 06:18AS 3109 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Portland	PDX 09:03 → PHX 11:39AS 1350	6h 16m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	2h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431	5h 46m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PSC 07:05 → MSP 12:01DL 2622	2h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHX 15:38DL 2284	8h 33m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	1h 49m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419	5h 55m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → PHX 22:11DL 1496	4h 50m	98%	82%
United Details →	PSC 05:03 → DEN 08:31UA 480	2h 54m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	7h 22m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447	7h 57m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 16:27 → PHX 19:25AS 744	6h 29m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 15:03 → PHX 17:49AS 478	4h 53m	57%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON