Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5578 at 13:35, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5578 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 13:35	SFO 15:44	36%	15%	0.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	2h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:18 → SFO 23:20DL 1091	5h 59m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	5h 52m	97%	76%
Alaska Details →	PSC 15:59 → PDX 16:50AS 2471 · flown by Horizon	2h 45m Portland	PDX 19:35 → SFO 21:24AS 697	5h 25m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412	6h 39m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	PSC 12:32 → SEA 13:50DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest	7h 44m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	PSC 07:02 → LAX 09:42AS 3304 · flown by SkyWest	3h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 12:55 → SFO 14:16AS 309	7h 14m	99%	69%
United Details →	PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest	2h 12m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	7h 32m	96%	67%
United Details →	PSC 05:03 → DEN 08:31UA 480	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 22m	93%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON