Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1010 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 1010 PSP 05:09 → DEN 08:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 1843 PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1010 United Flight history →	PSP 05:09	DEN 08:29	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 3533 Southwest	PSP 07:02	DEN 10:18	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 5617 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 09:31	DEN 13:08	9%	5%	0.5%	90%
UA 1843 United Flight history →	PSP 13:30	DEN 16:42	15%	7%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON