tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2932 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2932 Southwest PSP 05:30 LAS 06:39 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2933 Southwest PSP 15:42 LAS 16:59 20% 8% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:09 → DEN 08:29UA 1010 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 15m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 5h 55m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:31 → DEN 13:08UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Denver DEN 16:04 → LAS 17:11UA 2424 7h 40m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 57m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757 5h 55m 90% 75%
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:45 → SLC 20:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 57m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → LAS 21:58DL 1662 4h 13m 92% 71%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:29 → SFO 11:28UA 6052 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 14:15 → LAS 16:02UA 2352 6h 33m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:42UA 1843 2h 23m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 6h 38m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:28 → SFO 15:18UA 1430 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 17:45 → LAS 19:35UA 751 6h 07m 93% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:29 → SFO 11:28UA 6052 · flown by SkyWest 57m San Francisco SFO 12:25 → LAS 14:09UA 1777 4h 40m 69% 49%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:44 → SEA 10:40AS 3284 · flown by SkyWest 51m Seattle SEA 11:31 → LAS 14:16AS 738 6h 32m 66% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON