tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5542 at 07:26, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5542 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSP 07:26 LAX 08:30 15% 7% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PSP 05:09 → DEN 08:29UA 1010 1h 33m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 25m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 21m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:31 → DEN 13:08UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 7h 44m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest 57m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAX 13:20AS 695 6h 04m 90% 77%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 44m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:29 → SFO 11:28UA 6052 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → LAX 15:35UA 2610 6h 06m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:42UA 1843 2h 53m Denver DEN 19:35 → LAX 20:57UA 1460 7h 27m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:28 → SFO 15:18UA 1430 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 18:31 → LAX 19:53UA 1799 6h 25m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PSP 09:29 → SFO 11:28UA 6052 · flown by SkyWest 47m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 4h 26m 56% 43%
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:41 → DFW 17:48AA 2548 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:44 → LAX 20:02AA 2043 7h 21m 71% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON