Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 20–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3284 PSP 07:44 → SEA 10:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 322 PSP 18:05 → SEA 20:48 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3284 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 07:44	SEA 10:40	20%	6%	0.7%	88%
AS 457 Alaska	PSP 14:21	SEA 17:04	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 610 Alaska	PSP 11:36	SEA 14:20	23%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 322 Alaska	PSP 18:05	SEA 20:48	29%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON