Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2150 at 11:13 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2150 PSP 11:13 → SFO 13:01 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 6052 PSP 09:29 → SFO 11:28 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2150 United	PSP 11:13	SFO 13:01	21%	12%	0.6%	no record
OO 3462 SkyWest	PSP 13:14	SFO 14:57	22%	10%	0.6%	no record
QX 2401 Horizon	PSP 19:06	SFO 20:42	24%	13%	2.0%	no record
QX 2167 Horizon	PSP 11:03	SFO 12:40	26%	11%	1.8%	no record
UA 1430 United Flight history →	PSP 13:28	SFO 15:18	27%	14%	0.6%	57%
AS 3497 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 09:09	SFO 10:52	34%	14%	0.6%	60%
UA 6052 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 09:29	SFO 11:28	34%	15%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON