Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4370 at 15:47, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4370 Southwest	PSP 15:47	SMF 17:35	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 10m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	5h 17m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	PSP 17:45 → SLC 20:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → SMF 22:10DL 1582	4h 25m	92%	79%
United Details →	PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:42UA 1843	2h 55m Denver	DEN 19:37 → SMF 21:12UA 2132	7h 42m	97%	73%
United Details →	PSP 13:28 → SFO 15:18UA 1430	3h 18m San Francisco	SFO 18:36 → SMF 19:24UA 1862	5h 56m	97%	66%
American Details →	PSP 12:55 → PHX 14:20AA 1884	3h 47m Phoenix	PHX 18:07 → SMF 20:23AA 464	7h 28m	98%	64%
Alaska Details →	PSP 07:44 → SEA 10:40AS 3284 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 11:46 → SMF 13:35AS 772	5h 51m	86%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PSP 07:26 → LAX 08:30UA 5542 · flown by SkyWest	53m Los Angeles	LAX 09:23 → SMF 11:08UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m	75%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON