tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 459 Southwest PVD 08:22 BNA 10:04 5% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2936 Southwest PVD 17:32 BNA 19:23 14% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa 1h 00m Dulles IAD 08:29 → BNA 09:34UA 1366 4h 44m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → PVD 07:21 → CLT 09:40AA 1585 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 13:10 → BNA 13:39AA 538 7h 18m 99% 80%
JetBlueDetails → PVD 06:00 → JFK 06:59B6 1129 1h 06m New York JFK 08:05 → BNA 09:36B6 273 4h 36m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:29 → ATL 16:06DL 2147 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 19:20 → BNA 19:38DL 1490 7h 09m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → PVD 17:29 → ATL 20:20DL 2314 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BNA 22:58DL 3121 6h 29m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → PVD 12:50 → DTW 15:04DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 57m Detroit DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316 4h 50m 86% 73%
AmericanDetails → PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360 2h 24m Chicago ORD 11:23 → BNA 13:02AA 2362 6h 54m 97% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON