Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1812 PVD 08:20 → DCA 10:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5173 PVD 16:12 → DCA 18:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1812 American	PVD 08:20	DCA 10:09	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2940 Southwest	PVD 13:17	DCA 15:09	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5619 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 10:53	DCA 12:47	11%	5%	1.7%	71%
AA 2858 American	PVD 14:03	DCA 15:54	13%	6%	0.8%	no record
OH 5173 PSA	PVD 16:12	DCA 18:09	13%	7%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON