Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 1197 at 05:45, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1197 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 05:45	FLL 08:52	13%	4%	3.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 12:50 → DTW 15:04DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m Detroit	DTW 18:25 → FLL 21:27DL 2296	8h 37m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	6h 23m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:29 → ATL 16:06DL 2147	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489	8h 27m	99%	67%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:29 → ATL 20:20DL 2314	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	7h 10m	95%	64%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 06:00 → JFK 06:59B6 1129	1h 17m New York	JFK 08:16 → FLL 11:14B6 1601	5h 14m	94%	58%
American Details →	PVD 11:16 → CLT 13:29AA 1569	2h 05m Charlotte	CLT 15:34 → FLL 17:40AA 2397	6h 24m	97%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON