Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 1129 at 06:00, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1129 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 06:00	JFK 06:59	9%	3%	0.8%	97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	7h 20m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:29 → ATL 16:06DL 2147	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2378	8h 00m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PVD 12:50 → DTW 15:04DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 18:03 → JFK 20:04DL 1316	7h 14m	98%	80%
American Details →	PVD 07:21 → CLT 09:40AA 1585	1h 58m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → JFK 13:31AA 374	6h 10m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:29 → ATL 20:20DL 2314	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 22:33 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	7h 17m	94%	72%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 05:45 → FLL 08:52B6 1197	1h 04m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 09:56 → JFK 12:52B6 302	7h 07m	89%	67%
American Details →	PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 11:37 → JFK 15:00AA 3225	7h 52m	97%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON