Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3542 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3542 PVD 06:00 → MCO 08:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2876 PVD 17:42 → MCO 20:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3542 Southwest	PVD 06:00	MCO 08:58	5%	1%	4.7%	no record
WN 2942 Southwest	PVD 10:42	MCO 13:51	10%	3%	4.8%	no record
WN 1681 Southwest	PVD 17:22	MCO 20:31	18%	8%	1.5%	no record
B6 2876 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 17:42	MCO 20:45	25%	13%	2.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON