Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 482 Southwest	PVD 08:04	MDW 09:47	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2944 Southwest	PVD 16:17	MDW 18:00	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 42m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:29 → ATL 20:20DL 2314	55m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 46m	80%	64%
Delta Details →	PVD 12:50 → DTW 15:04DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 39m	98%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON