Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1771 at 14:50, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1771 Delta	PVD 14:50	MSP 17:00	12%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 50m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:29 → ATL 20:20DL 2314	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	8h 10m	97%	82%
United Details →	PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa	1h 02m Dulles	IAD 08:31 → MSP 10:10UA 2604	5h 20m	96%	82%
American Details →	PVD 07:21 → CLT 09:40AA 1585	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 12:37 → MSP 14:23AA 1671	8h 02m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:29 → ATL 16:06DL 2147	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46DL 2654	8h 17m	99%	81%
American Details →	PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 11:49 → MSP 13:55AA 2448	7h 47m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	PVD 12:50 → DTW 15:04DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 22m	90%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON