Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 360 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 360 PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest OO 5251 PVD 16:40 → ORD 18:29 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 360 American Flight history →	PVD 07:08	ORD 08:59	11%	4%	0.9%	81%
OO 5747 SkyWest	PVD 09:39	ORD 11:27	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 1935 United	PVD 11:29	ORD 13:15	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
YX 4797 Republic	PVD 17:27	ORD 19:28	21%	6%	1.5%	no record
OO 5251 SkyWest	PVD 16:40	ORD 18:29	28%	11%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON