Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1515 Delta Flight history →	PWM 06:15	ATL 09:00	12%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2479 Delta Flight history →	PWM 13:55	ATL 16:46	21%	5%	0.6%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:20 → IAD 07:04UA 3522 · flown by Republic	1h 20m Dulles	IAD 08:24 → ATL 10:27UA 2739	5h 07m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:38 → MSP 13:58DL 1766	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:06DL 1036	9h 28m	100%	87%
American Details →	PWM 10:56 → PHL 12:40AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont	2h 48m Philadelphia	PHL 15:28 → ATL 17:48AA 5250 · flown by PSA	6h 52m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor	3h 26m New York	JFK 11:10 → ATL 13:43DL 1029	7h 23m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821	2h 01m Detroit	DTW 20:55 → ATL 23:09DL 2294	6h 17m	95%	80%
United Details →	PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic	1h 07m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → ATL 00:26 +1UA 1357	5h 10m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	PWM 12:50 → DTW 14:50DL 426	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 17:59 → ATL 20:04DL 2053	7h 14m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	PWM 14:59 → JFK 16:32DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	2h 28m New York	JFK 19:00 → ATL 22:11DL 962	7h 12m	96%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON