Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 279 at 10:21, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 279 Southwest	PWM 10:21	BNA 12:23	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:20 → IAD 07:04UA 3522 · flown by Republic	1h 25m Dulles	IAD 08:29 → BNA 09:34UA 1366	5h 14m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1515	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 15m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:29 → JFK 07:51DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor	3h 43m New York	JFK 11:34 → BNA 12:53DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor	7h 24m	99%	83%
American Details →	PWM 10:43 → LGA 12:17AA 4571 · flown by Republic	2h 35m New York	LGA 14:52 → BNA 16:27AA 4380 · flown by Republic	6h 44m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 20:59 → BNA 21:35DL 2126	5h 43m	94%	78%
United Details →	PWM 10:55 → EWR 12:29UA 3405 · flown by Republic	3h 51m Newark	EWR 16:20 → BNA 18:01UA 2454	8h 06m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → BNA 20:34DL 3002	7h 39m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	PWM 12:50 → DTW 14:50DL 426	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316	4h 50m	88%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PWM 14:50 → LGA 16:24AA 4515 · flown by Republic	48m New York	LGA 17:12 → BNA 18:35AA 1008	4h 45m	58%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON