Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2884 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2884 PWM 06:46 → DCA 08:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 1423 PWM 17:04 → DCA 19:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2884 American Flight history →	PWM 06:46	DCA 08:42	6%	3%	0.7%	62%
OH 5212 PSA	PWM 10:06	DCA 12:07	8%	4%	2.0%	no record
AA 5528 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PWM 13:44	DCA 15:48	11%	4%	2.2%	81%
AA 1423 American Flight history →	PWM 17:04	DCA 19:10	18%	7%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON