Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Dulles, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 287 United Flight history →	PWM 15:37	DEN 18:16	22%	6%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:20 → IAD 07:04UA 3522 · flown by Republic	3h 09m Dulles	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	8h 45m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1515	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	9h 45m	97%	81%
United Details →	PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic	1h 09m Dulles	IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495	7h 14m	91%	79%
American Details →	PWM 06:28 → ORD 08:23AA 4499 · flown by Republic	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DEN 11:41AA 2363	7h 13m	97%	78%
American Details →	PWM 07:50 → PHL 09:43AA 1536	3h 29m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → DEN 15:19AA 2082	9h 29m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	8h 48m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	PWM 12:50 → DTW 14:50DL 426	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → DEN 17:07DL 2431	6h 17m	88%	72%
United Details →	PWM 10:55 → EWR 12:29UA 3405 · flown by Republic	2h 13m Newark	EWR 14:42 → DEN 16:55UA 2444	8h 00m	97%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PWM 17:06 → ORD 18:51UA 1828	59m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DEN 21:22UA 329	6h 16m	66%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON