tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 16:52, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3301 American Flight history → PWM 08:58 DFW 12:09 12% 4% 0.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PWM 06:46 → DCA 08:42AA 2884 3h 17m Washington DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623 8h 37m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → PWM 07:50 → PHL 09:43AA 1536 1h 05m Philadelphia PHL 10:48 → DFW 13:22AA 3326 6h 32m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1515 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414 7h 22m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → PWM 15:37 → DEN 18:16UA 287 2h 37m Denver DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239 9h 22m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → PWM 10:56 → PHL 12:40AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont 2h 20m Philadelphia PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402 7h 54m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → PWM 10:43 → LGA 12:17AA 4571 · flown by Republic 3h 59m New York LGA 16:16 → DFW 19:06AA 1608 9h 23m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → PWM 13:44 → DCA 15:48AA 5528 · flown by PSA 3h 20m Washington DCA 19:08 → DFW 21:34AA 1158 8h 50m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → PWM 10:55 → EWR 12:29UA 3405 · flown by Republic 3h 01m Newark EWR 15:30 → DFW 18:12UA 1590 8h 17m 99% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479 51m Atlanta ATL 17:37 → DFW 18:57DL 1827 6h 02m 74% 54%
UnitedDetails → PWM 17:06 → ORD 18:51UA 1828 59m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 6h 30m 66% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON