Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 426 Delta Flight history →	PWM 12:50	DTW 14:50	17%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history →	PWM 16:52	DTW 18:54	20%	6%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:20 → IAD 07:04UA 3522 · flown by Republic	1h 31m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → DTW 10:14UA 6137 · flown by Mesa	4h 54m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:38 → MSP 13:58DL 1766	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 16:09 → DTW 18:54DL 1476	7h 16m	99%	88%
American Details →	PWM 06:46 → DCA 08:42AA 2884	1h 22m Washington	DCA 10:04 → DTW 11:55AA 5660 · flown by PSA	5h 09m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1515	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 41m	98%	83%
American Details →	PWM 06:28 → ORD 08:23AA 4499 · flown by Republic	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 09:59 → DTW 12:29AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 01m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:31DL 1232	8h 36m	99%	79%
United Details →	PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic	1h 07m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → DTW 00:04 +1UA 2846	4h 48m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	PWM 14:59 → JFK 16:32DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	2h 58m New York	JFK 19:30 → DTW 22:04DL 1253	7h 05m	97%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON